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Orlando State of the Market April 2023

May 18th, 2023 by tisner


State of the Market

  • Overall sales fell 5.8% from March to April. There were 2,766 sales in April, down from 2,936 sales in March.
  • Overall sales in April 2023 were 27.2% lower than April 2022 when there were 3,800 sales.
  • Inventory rose 1.9% – from 5,052 homes in March to 5,148 homes in April.
  • Inventory in April 2023 (5,148) was 92.8% higher compared to April 2022, when it was recorded at only 2,670 homes.
  • The median home price for April was recorded at $370,000, up from $365,000 in March. Median home prices have increased every month this year.
  • Median home price in April 2023 was the same as recorded in April 2022 at $370,000.
  • April’s interest rate was recorded at 6.4%, down from 6.7% in March. This comes after three straight months with rising rates.
  • New listings fell 6.4% from March to April, with 3,220 new homes on the market in April, compared to 3,442 in March.
  • Homes spent an average of 52 days on the market (DOM) in April, down from 57 days in March. This is 116.7% higher than April 2022 when homes spent an average of 24 days on the market.
  • “April data showed a slight uptick in Orlando inventory as home sales slowed, indicating the spring selling season may be starting to balance out,” said Lisa Hill, Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “Orlando’s median home prices are still climbing as sellers continue to get competitive offers. The good news for buyers is that interest rates in Orlando dropped slightly, giving them extra buying power.”

Market Snapshot

  • Interest rates decreased from 6.7% in March to 6.4% in April. This is 29.7% higher than April 2022 when interest rates were 4.9%.
  • Pending sales rose, with 4,220 in March and 4,485 in April.
  • 18 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 0.7% of all home sales in April. That represents a 35.7% decrease from March, when 28 distressed homes sold.

Inventory

  • Orlando area inventory increased by 1.9% from March to April – from 5,052 homes to 5,148 homes. Inventory in April 2023 was 92.8% higher than in April 2022.
  • The supply of homes increased to 1.86 months in April, up from 1.72 months in March. A balanced market is six months of supply.
  • The number of new listings decreased from March to April by 6.4% – from 3,442 homes to 3,220 homes.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for March can be found here.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

By: www.orlandorealtors.org

Seven Things First-Time Home Sellers Should Expect

May 16th, 2023 by tisner


You have decided to sell your home, and dream of it immediately becoming a highly desired property with a bidding war that drives up your asking price and closing in thirty days dance in your head. Dream on! These seven tips can help bring you back to earth:
 

  • While you love your home, not everyone else will. Sellers must detach their emotions about the house while it is on the market. Think of it as a financial transaction or see it from the expectant house hunters’ point of view.  
  • Major issues with your house should be repaired before the For Sale sign goes in the front yard, and if repairs are not possible, a repair credit will have to be offered to the buyer. Be prepared to do some painting and patching, at the very least. If you want the best sale price, you should do your best to earn it. 
  • It is vital to be available to your agent, whether it be via phone calls, texting, or email. They are your link to the buyer, and it is possible to lose a sale by not being accessible. 
  • If you or your agent have decided to hire a staging firm, do not take offense if they ask to put your belongings in storage. It is not about your personal taste, but about making the home appealing to the general public and seeing it as their home. 
  • Flexibility is key when allowing potential buyers to see it. You will not be getting a weekly showing schedule that is set in stone, so be prepared for inconveniences. 
  • Because every accepted offer does not result in a sale, have the “big” things packed and ready to move, but hold off on packing the necessities until closing is imminent! 
  • Some sales take time, but incentives can make a property more attractive: cash towards the closing costs, a year’s home warranty, and payment of HOA dues are just a few ideas to attract buyers. 

There is much more to selling a house than decluttering and keeping the home clean for showings. Hopefully, being prepared, flexible, and practical will not only produce a satisfactory selling price, but it will also make the process less stressful for you and your family. 

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Photo credit: cnbc

What Home Features Are High on Buyers’ Lists?

May 11th, 2023 by tisner


Homes with a steam oven, quartz finishes in the kitchen or hurricane shutters/windows typically sell for a higher price than the average Fla. home

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – With spring-buying season in full swing, home sellers eager to see their properties sold quickly could benefit from having certain features in their house, a new analysis shows.

Homes that have attributes such as a steam oven, quartz finishes or even hurricane shutters/windows, typically sell for a higher price than the average home, according to data from Zillow. And homes that have a characteristics such as a doorbell camera or even a fenced-in backyard typically sold between three to five days faster than a home without those added items.

“Multifunctional homes that offer retreat spaces and features for outdoor entertaining are particularly appealing to post-pandemic buyers, who expect their homes to be a place where they can work and play,” the report from Zillow noted.

And as the spring-buying season takes off, sellers should use every opportunity they have to get their home sold quickly as there is still buyer demand for homes in South Florida, said Alex Platt, with the Platt Group at Compass in Boca Raton. “Although homes are sitting on the market slightly longer than they have been in the past, the updated homes that are priced right are selling quickly,” Platt said.

Here are the features that help a home sell faster, according to Zillow.

“Buyers are also looking for homes with newer roofs and full storm protection (hurricane windows or storm shutters). Storm protection has become more important than it was in the past, as insurance prices change depending on the level of storm protection the home has,” Platt added.

Homes that had features like a steam oven got 5.3% more than a house that didn’t have it, while professional appliances had a 3.6% price premium and hurricane shutters had a 2.3% price premium.

“When showing homes, we find that buyers always make a comment when a home has additional security features like cameras and ask if they come with the home. Another feature is outdoor living space, such as a covered patio or outdoor kitchen/built-in BBQ,” Platt said. “Buyers like envisioning how they can live in the home, and in Florida, comfortable outdoor space is important.”

And particular to South Florida, having a pool in a home also gives a seller an advantage, according to Platt. About 60% of homes that sold in Palm Beach County in the past 90 days had a pool.

To calculate what features of a home will help it sell for more or faster, Zillow compared the final sales prices of homes listed and the time they spent on the market, as well as whether they had certain features listed in the home description.

There are some caveats as experts warn that adding these features may not offer the return on investment that potential home sellers might expect, but for sellers who already have these features in the home, highlighting them could get them more money or a faster sale.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

By Amber Bonefont
© 2023 South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

The People You Meet When Buying a Home

May 9th, 2023 by tisner

There will be more than just you, your real estate agent, the seller, and their agent involved in the process–unless you are paying cash for a new home! Appraisers, lenders, and inspectors are just a few of the folks you will come across, and it will relieve some stress on your part if you familiarize yourself with who they are and what part they play during your house purchase.
 

  • Real Estate Agents
    The agent you choose will be your resource and constant contact throughout the home-buying process. In most transactions, there will be a listing agent representing the sellers, but it is unlikely you will be meeting them.
     
  • Mortgage lenders
    To be adequately prepared to begin looking for a new house, you should be pre-approved for a mortgage. Meet with a few different lenders to find the best loan for you; see what the balance recommends for finding the right mortgage.
     
  • Appraiser
    The mortgage company wants to be sure that the property is worth what the asking price. The appraiser is usually one of the lender’s choosing. Learn more about what is involved with the appraisal from realtor.com®.
     
  • Home Inspector
    You do not want any surprises with structural issues, mold, or insect infestation after you have the keys in hand, so it is in your best interest to hire an inspector to go over your prospective home. Call several inspectors, and ask these important questions.
     
  • Homeowners Insurance Agent 
    Most insurance companies offer a discount for having more than one policy with them, and it may be easier to go with your current insurer, so give your agent a call. Do not let that stop you from shopping around for better rates, however.
     
  • Real Estate Attorney
    Many states require you to hire an attorney, as they will go over all of the documents, handle funds, and perform the title search, to name a few of their jobs during the home sale process. Find out why it is always a good idea to have a real estate attorney, whether it is the law or optional.
     
  • Title Insurer 
    In case there are any questions about the sale of the home being legitimate (no liens, family feuds, etc.), you will need title insurance, and in most cases, the lender or attorney will already have that lined up.
     

 

These entities are typically involved in the home-buying process, but not every one. You may come across another professional or service during your experience. Your Realtor® will keep you informed of each step, so no need to be concerned if there is a step along the way you are not familiar with. Every one of them, however, is important for a smooth transaction, protecting you and your largest investment. 

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Photo credit: Istock

Are Floridians More Optimistic than Rest of U.S.?

March 30th, 2023 by tisner


While Americans’ attitudes declined a bit in Jan., a monthly UF study of Floridians found a 1.4-point increase overall with an uptick in expectations for the future.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – In January, consumer sentiment among Floridians increased 1.4 points to 65.4 from December’s revised figure of 64. At a national level, sentiment increased over five points. Yesterday, the Conference Board noted a slight dip in overall Americans’ optimism.

“The increase in consumer sentiment in January stems from improvements in Floridians’ expectations about the future, particularly their expectations of a year from now,” says Hector Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Sandoval calls those views “consistent with a falling inflation outlook. After peaking at 9.1% in June, inflation has steadily declined to 6.5% in December. It is expected that price pressures will continue to ease over the next few months, preventing households from experiencing further hardships.

Among the five components that make up the index, four increased and one decreased.

Current conditions: Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions in January were mixed. Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago increased 1.1 point from 54.6 to 55.7. On the other hand, opinions as to whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item like an appliance decreased three-tenths of a point from 55.2 to 54.9.

Future conditions: Outlooks about expected future economic conditions were positive. Prospects for individual’s personal finances a year from now increased 3.3 points from 76.5 to 79.8. Similarly, expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year increased 1.6 points from 62.9 to 64.5.

This long-range optimism even extended five years into the future. Views of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased 1.1 points from 70.9 to 72.

Meanwhile, the Florida labor market continued to strengthen in December, with more jobs being added. According to the latest Florida jobs report, the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1 percentage point in December, reaching 2.5% – only one-tenth of a percentage point above the lowest rate on record.

In line with this, the number of Florida workers seeking unemployment benefits is hovering around pre-pandemic levels, indicating a tightening labor market.

“Prices have been declining over the second half of 2022 as the Fed swiftly increased interest rates,” says Sandoval. “Despite this, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in the last quarter of 2022.”

Inflation, however, remains well above the Federal Reserve target of 2%.” While the Fed will likely raise rates this week, it’s not expected to be a large increase similar to last year.

Still, “continued increases in interest rates will ultimately slow down the economy and trigger a recession,” adds Sandoval.

Sandoval remains positive, though, “Looking ahead, with the assumption the labor market remains robust, we expect consumer sentiment to improve slowly as inflation pressures continue to ease.”

The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.

© 2023 Florida Realtors® Kerry Smith

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Orlando State of the Market February 2023

March 16th, 2023 by tisner


State of the Market

  • Overall sales rose 33.8% from January to February. There were 2,240 sales in February and 1,674 sales in January.
  • Overall sales in February 2023 were 30.0% lower than February 2022 when there were 3,198 sales.
  • Inventory dropped from 6,115 homes in January to 5,555 homes in February.
  • Inventory in February 2023 (5,555) was 140.2% higher compared to February 2022, when it was recorded at only 2,313 homes.
  • The median home price for February was recorded at $358,000, up from $350,000 in January. This comes after three straight months of declining median home prices.
  • February’s interest rate was recorded at 6.4%, up from 6.1% in January.
  • Homes spent an average of 62 days on the market (DOM) in February, up from 57 days in January. This is a 106.7% increase compared to February 2022 when homes spent an average of 30 days on the market.
  • New listings decreased slightly from January to February, with 2,820 new homes on the market in February, compared to 2,911 in January.
  • “In February, we saw a spike in sales due to closings that started during the holiday season. After the New Year, we tend to see those contracts close as home buying and selling activity rises,” said Lisa Hill, Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “The Orlando housing market continues to look positive as we look ahead to a strong spring selling season.”

Market Snapshot

  • Interest rates increased from 6.1% in January to 6.4% in February. This is 64.5% higher than February 2022 when interest rates were 3.9%.
  • Pending sales increased by 21.2%, from 3,453 in January to 4,184 in February.
  • 22 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 1.0% of all home sales in February. That represents a 57.1% increase from January, when 14 distressed homes sold.

Inventory

  • Orlando area inventory decreased by 9.2% from January to February – from 6,115 homes to 5,555 homes. Inventory in February 2023 was 140.2% higher than in February 2022, when inventory reached a record low.
  • The supply of homes decreased to 2.48 months in February, down from 3.65 months in January. A balanced market is six months of supply.
  • The number of new listings decreased from January to February by 3.1% – from 2,911 homes to 2,820 homes.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for February can be found here.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

By: www.orlandorealtors.org

A Guide for Avoiding Foreclosure

March 14th, 2023 by tisner


Sometimes, homeowners can get into financial trouble by circumstances beyond their control. Job loss, divorce, medical bills, or the death of a family member are usually the culprits. While foreclosure seems to loom over an already bad situation, it does not have to get to that point! Here are some tips that can help keep foreclosure proceedings at bay:
 

  • Contact the lender before the first late mortgage payment, especially if there is equity in the home. Lenders normally do not begin the foreclosure process until payments are 120 days behind, so there is still time at this point. 
  • The mortgage servicer can offer several options to avoid losing the home to foreclosure: refinance the mortgage, a loan modification, working out a repayment plan, or forbearance. Two procedures that will affect the borrower’s credit score are the short-sale of the property, or going through a “deed-in-lieu of foreclosure.” 
  • Selling expensive items–a boat that is only used a few times per year, for instance–can cut monthly expenses, and any proceeds can go towards the mortgage. 
  • Keeping mortgage payments current is more important than paying credit card bills! Credit scores will be affected by late credit card payments, but a foreclosure will do far more damage. 
  • Do not allow mail from the lender to go unopened if payments are currently behind. Mortgage lenders normally want to avoid foreclosing on the home as much as the homeowner. 
  • Credit counseling can never begin too early, and the HUD website offers lists of local credit counselors. Find other helpful information through the National Foundation for Credit Counseling®. 
  • Resist any quick-fix offers advertised on the internet, television commercials, and junk mail, or even from so-called investors. These “rescue mortgages” could be scams, and a home can be lost before foreclosure procedures can even begin. 
  • When the house payment is simply no longer affordable, get advice from an attorney whose specialty is foreclosure, as most will do a one-time consult at no cost. Legal Aid can assist the borrower in finding a pro bono lawyer. 

The best tip is to contact the lender as soon as finances become difficult to manage. Being proactive before the installments become overdue will allow more options to be available. A house is an important investment, and it is home. A homeowner should do all they can in order to keep it. 

 

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Photo credit: USDA

Economy Sends Mixed Signals: What’s It Mean?

March 9th, 2023 by tisner


Inflation slowed and the stock market climbed in the first six weeks of 2023, but then it stopped. A soft landing seemed possible; now recession fears are back.

WASHINGTON (AP) – Maybe it was just too good to be true.

For a few weeks in late January and early February, the U.S. economy seemed to have reached a rare, sweet spot. Inflation was steadily slowing from painful heights. And growth and hiring remained surprisingly sturdy despite ever-higher interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve.

Perhaps, the thinking went, the Fed’s inflation fighters were managing to nail a notoriously difficult “soft landing”: A scenario in which borrowing and spending slow just enough to tame inflation without tipping the world’s biggest economy into a recession.

“We were looking at landings that were pillow-soft,” recalled Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting giant KPMG. “There was a bit of glee about that.”

The financial markets roared their approval in the first six weeks of 2023, with stock prices surging on expectations that the Fed might soon pause and eventually reverse the series of aggressive rate hikes it began nearly a year ago.

Then something went wrong.

It began on Valentine’s Day. The government said its closely watched consumer price index had surged 0.5% from December to January – five times the increase from November to December.

Over the next week and a half, two more government releases told essentially the same story: The Fed’s fight to curb inflation wasn’t even close to being won.

That realization brought a related worry: If high inflation was even stickier than we thought, then the Fed would likely keep raising rates – and keep them high – longer than was assumed. Those ever-higher borrowing rates would make it more probable that a recession, with layoffs and business failures, might occur.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned Congress Tuesday that the central bank will have to raise interest rates even higher than its previously signaled if inflation keeps running hot.

“It’s heartbreaking,” Swonk said. “This has put the Fed back in defensive mode, and they’re going to have to harden their resolve on rate hikes.”

Unsurprisingly, the stock market has recoiled at the prospect.

Here’s a closer look at the economy’s vital signs at a perplexing time of high interest rates, still-punishing inflation and surprisingly strong economic gains.

Inflation

Consumer inflation, not much of a problem, on average, since the early 1980s, started picking up in the spring of 2021 as the economy roared out of recession and Americans spent freely again. At first, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and some economists dismissed the resurgent price spikes as likely a temporary problem that would resolve itself once clogged supply chains had returned to normal.

But the supply bottlenecks lasted longer than expected, and so did high inflation. Worse, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago sent energy and food prices rocketing. By June 2022, consumer prices were 9.1% higher than they’d been a year earlier – the hottest year-over-year inflation in more than four decades.

By then, the Fed had begun, belatedly, to respond. It has raised its benchmark rate eight times since March 2022 in its most aggressive credit tightening since the early 1980s.

In response, consumer inflation edged down from its mid-2022 peak. It posted milder year-over-year increases for seven straight months as supply chains unclogged and higher borrowing costs worked their way through the economy, putting a brake on overspending.

Financial markets appeared ready to declare the inflation dragon all but slain.

Then came January’s unexpectedly hot consumer inflation data. Two days later, the government reported that wholesale prices had jumped 0.7% from December to January, nearly twice what forecasters had expected.

Next came bad news from the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely: The government’s personal consumption expenditures price index. It accelerated 0.6% from December to January, far above the 0.2% November-to-December uptick. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 5.4%, up slightly from the annual increase in December and well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

The PCE report “adds to the difficult if not impossible task facing the Fed in terms of getting inflation back to its 2% target without driving the economy into a ditch,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at the Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. consultancy.

One concern is that this time, inflation may prove harder to slow than it was initially. Households have increasingly shifted their spending away from physical goods like patio furniture and appliances to experiences like traveling, restaurant meals and entertainment events. Inflationary pressures, too, have shifted from goods toward services, where price acceleration can be harder to tame.

In part, that’s because chronic labor shortages at stores, restaurants, hotels and other service-sector industries have led many employers in those industries to keep raising pay to attract or retain workers. Those employers, in turn, have generally raised their prices to make up for their higher labor costs, thereby fueling inflation.

Some economists expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rate by a substantial half-percentage point when it next meets March 21-22, after having announced only a quarter-point hike when it met Jan. 31-Feb. 1.

Housing

The Fed’s rate hikes, which so far have had only a limited effect on the overall economy, have walloped one industry: Housing.

Residential real estate depends on the willingness of people to borrow for what’s typically the costliest purchase of their lives. As the Fed continually jacked up interest rates last year, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage topped 7% last fall – more than double where it began 2022 – before dropping back slightly.

The damage has been severe. Sales of existing homes have dropped for a record 12 straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. And the government’s GDP report showed that investment in housing plunged at an annual rate of nearly 26% from October through December after having tumbled 18% from April through June and 27% from July through September.

The overall economy

The flipside of the disquieting inflation news is good news on the state of the economy – or what would be considered good news in normal times. Even burdened by rising borrowing rates, the economy has proved stronger and sturdier than most forecasters had imagined.

“This economy today looks very different from where we thought it was in mid-January,” said Peter Hooper, an economist at Deutsche Bank. “Before, we thought that things were slowing down, the labor market was softening, wage and price inflation was coming down.”

With inflation pressures still persistent, Hooper said, “there’s this growing expectation that the Fed has clearly more work to do.”

The economy regained its footing last summer after enduring an anemic first half of 2022. The nation’s gross domestic product – its total output of goods and services – contracted from January through March last year and again from April through June.

Though one informal definition of a recession is two straight quarters of negative growth, most economists set aside such concerns this time. They noted that the economy had shrunk in early 2022 because of factors unrelated to its underlying health: Leaner business inventories and a surge in imports, which widened the U.S. trade deficit.

GDP quickly regained momentum: It grew at a solid 3.2% annual rate from July through September and a 2.7% rate from October through December. Steady consumer spending contributed heavily to the growth.

Economists still foresee a recession sometime this year – they were always skeptical of a soft landing – but now see it coming later than they’d expected. A survey of 48 forecasters issued last week by the National Association for Business Economics found that only a quarter of the respondents think a recession will have started by the end of March, down from half who had predicted so in December.

Jobs

The remarkable strength of the American job market has defied expectations throughout the economic tumult of the COVID years. 2021 and 2022 were the two best years for hiring in U.S. government records dating to 1940.

Job creation was expected to slow this year. Not so far. In January, employers added a blistering 517,000 jobs, far surpassing December’s 260,000 gain. They likely added nearly 208,000 more in February, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. The Labor Department releases last month’s job numbers on Friday.

What’s more, American workers as a whole are enjoying nearly unheard-of job security despite some high-profile layoffs in technology and a few other sectors. The government’s count of monthly dismissals and layoffs sank below 1.5 million for the first time in 2021 and has stayed there since.

In January, the unemployment rate reached 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969. There are now about two job openings, on average, for each unemployed American.

But a robust job market also puts upward pressure on wages – and therefore on prices. Which means further inflation.

“The kind of wage gains we’re seeing and the kind of tightness in the labor market is consistent with 3.5% to 4% inflation, not 2% or 3%,” KPMG’s Swonk said. “That’s the hard reality of where we are.”

Consumers

Their jobs secure, their bank accounts still bolstered by pandemic-era savings, Americans have continued to spend, shrugging off higher interest rates and prices.

In January, retail sales rose at their fastest pace in nearly two years, rebounding from a tepid holiday shopping season. Even after accounting for inflation, consumers spent their after-tax dollars at the fastest pace since March 2021. Consumer spending on services, ranging from health care to dinners out to airline tickets last year accounted for 95% of the economy’s growth.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, estimates that consumers still have $1.5 trillion in “excess savings” – above what they’d have socked away if the pandemic hadn’t hit – from government aid and from cutting back while stuck at home at the peak of the pandemic.

Still, inflation continues to cause hardships for millions of households. Adjusted for inflation, average hourly earnings have fallen for 22 straight months, government data shows. Many low- and middle-income families are turning to credit cards to sustain their spending.

Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission. AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report.

By: www.floridarealtors.org, Paul Wiseman

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Yes, You Should Buy a House This Year

March 3rd, 2023 by tisner

Buyers who wait for more inventory, lower interest rates or something else may never own a home. And given history, 2023 is a pretty good year to commit.

McDONOUGH, Ga. – Mortgage rates are finally falling across the fruited plains, with rates in the 5.6% range for a 30-year fixed mortgage not uncommon in early February. Couple that with declining home prices and an uptick in the residential real estate inventory, and it looks like the great American homebuyer finally has leverage after two years of home sellers calling the shots.

“2023 will be better for buyers,” said Magellan Realty LLC mortgage broker Alex Caras. “As the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at the current levels, the buying market will start to open up more, reducing competition for existing homes.”

Construction woes brought on by the supply chain issues are also being eased, “so more new homes will be on the market,” Caras added.

Buyers getting an edge

Those are the macro reasons why U.S. homebuyers have a leg up going into the busy spring and summer real estate season. Buyers should have an edge thanks to these five realities, as well.

1. Mega-high prices are a thing of the past. “The price climbing we saw in 2020 and 2021 has hit a plateau,” said Guaranteed Rate Mortgage Senior Vice President of Lending Jennifer Beeston. “It took a good chunk of 2022 for many sellers to realize 2021 is long gone and they needed to be more realistic with the pricing and condition of their home.”

In addition, buyers see a return to a more balanced market in 2023. “Now, buyers actually can get inspections and can negotiate prices,” Beeston said. “That wasn’t the case with the drama of 2022.”

2. The Federal Reserve is hitting the brakes. The U.S. Federal Reserve is slowing down its policy of substantial interest rate increases that were prevalent in 2022.

“This means more buyers will be able to purchase a home at a lower rate,” Caras told TheStreet. “Home prices have been reduced to a more reasonable level as well, and this will continue for much of 2023 as the competition to purchase homes has lessened.”

3. The pandemic is over. Buyers will have an opportunity to negotiate again in 2023 and even more so in 2024.

“We’re likely going to see some distressed sales and sellers will need to become more realistic,” said Pulse International Realty founder Rena Kliot. “The spike in home prices is not sustainable and was in direct correlation to the pandemic. During the dark days of the pandemic, there were many desperate and emotional purchases.”

4. Changing residential market tastes. While single-family homes will continue to be popular, the U.S. condo market will return in full swing.

“Life as we knew it seems to be returning and that is drawing people back to urban dwelling – especially with condo living,” Kliot said. “Condo prices are now also more affordable or negotiable than single-family residences.”

5. Strong signals from the stock market. Across the U.S., there seems to be a general sigh of relief the worst has passed.

“Inflation has peaked, interest rates have peaked, and home prices have peaked for now,” said Elegran Real Estate managing director Jared Antin. “The stock market – notably the tech-heavy NASDAQ – has seen a significant rebound thus far in 2023, which instills a certain level of confidence in the consumer.”

The falling market through much of 2022 had the opposite effect, reducing consumer appetite for a new home with rising interest rates and inflation.

“Now, a more positive consumer base will help fuel a rebounding real estate market,” Antin noted.

One of the most important things a would-be home buyer should do right now is to stay hopeful and be prepared.

“Don’t assume that just because you’re having trouble finding a home now, or can’t afford a house at today’s rates, that you’ll never be a homeowner,” LendingTree senior economist Jacob Channel. “If you have patience and are willing to compromise on some things, like how many bathrooms your house needs to have or what specific neighborhood you require, you can make your dream of homeownership a reality.”

Additionally, being prepared financially when a good deal arises is critical right now.

“Be diligent about saving money and make all of your monthly payments on time to protect your credit,” Chanel told TheStreet. “Also, shop around and compare mortgage offers from different lenders or look into different mortgage loan programs – like FHA or USDA backed loans – so you can make the home buying experience more affordable.”

Copyright © 2023 Henry Daily Herald. All rights reserved.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

By and photo credit: www.floridarealtors.org

Real Estate Trends: What’s the 2023 Fla. Outlook?

January 26th, 2023 by tisner

ORLANDO, Fla. – What should consumers, Realtors® and policymakers expect when it comes to Florida real estate over the next year? After the unexpectedly strong years of 2020 and 2021 despite an ongoing pandemic, Florida’s housing sector in 2022 was affected by rapidly rising inflation and higher mortgage interest rates, Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor told nearly 500 Realtors during the recent 2023 Florida Real Estate Trends summit.

“Now, we expect the state’s residential real estate market to return to a more typical pace,” he said. “I believe 2023 will look more like the ‘traditional’ housing market years of 2018-2019 in Florida as supply and demand become more balanced.”

The event was part of this year’s Florida Realtors®’ Mid-Winter Business Meetings at the Renaissance SeaWorld Orlando. In addition to O’Connor, the summit featured John Leer, chief economist of Morning Consult, which uses high-frequency survey data to capture insights into consumer attitudes and concerns. Leer leads global economic research and oversees the firm’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preference, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.

It also included a panel of Realtors who use Florida Realtors’ SunStats resource regularly, sharing how it helps them in their business. Panelists were Peter West, broker/managing partner, Bishop West Real Estate; Kara Wisely, broker associate, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty; and John J. Adams, president, Adams, Cameron and Co., Realtors. Jennifer Warner, Florida Realtors economist and director of economic development, served as the moderator.

Dr. Brad O’Connor, Florida Realtors chief economist

One major question currently on the minds of real estate professionals, homebuyers, home sellers and others: Is a price correction on the way?

“Well, prices are determined by both demand and supply,” O’Connor said. “Falling demand is only one ingredient needed for a large correction; we also need a flood of supply – in the last housing cycle, this came from overbuilding and foreclosures. And it’s unlikely that we’re going to see a flood of newly built homes on the market for several reasons. First, fewer home builders currently exist than in years past; builders are more conservative when it comes to taking on new builds; and home builds are taking longer to complete. Supply is also being affected by homeowners who don’t want to list their house and buy a different one because they’re likely to have to pay more on the next home due to higher mortgage interest rates.

“So it’s true some owners are feeling ‘locked-in’ to their current home and current mortgage rate, but it’s not all homeowners. We are seeing gains in inventory (active listings) and closed sales are continuing. And we are going to see some relaxing or easing in prices, but we’re not going to see a great drop unless or until we see more supply available.

According to O’Connor, inflation will continue to be a factor in 2023, though recent economic news shows the Federal Reserve’s action to fight inflation appears to be having a positive effect. Buyer demand in Florida in the coming months will continue to be challenged by insurance costs, mortgage rates – especially if rates start rising again to 7% or higher – and ongoing economic uncertainty that erodes consumer confidence.

“Mortgage rates will come down, but it’s all dependent on different factors,” he said. “All of the current forecasts on existing home sales in 2023 rely on where the 30-year mortgage rate is going to be, and that’s in flux.

Recent 2023 forecasts for U.S. existing home sales compared year-over-year to 2022 include:

National Association of Realtors® (12/13/22): Existing home sales fall 7.0% Y/Y in 2023

Fannie Mae (12/12/22): Existing home sales fall 21.1% Y/Y in 2023

Mortgage Bankers Association (12/19/22): Existing home sales fall 13.7% Y/Y in 2023

Redfin (12/6/22): Existing home sales fall 16.0% Y/Y in 2023

Realtor.com (11/30/22): Existing home sales fall 14.1% Y/Y in 2023

National Association of Home Builders (1/4/23): Existing home sales fall 15.7% Y/Y in 2023

O’Connor said, “In the first half of this year, I feel confident that we’re going to see home prices flatten out on average, and I think sales will kind of hug below the line of 2018 (closed existing home sales). I expect closed sales to hover a bit below the more usual pace of Florida home sales, such as what we saw in 2018. However, because home prices are much higher now than in 2018, we are still going to see a higher dollar volume of closed existing home sales, just not at the level of last year or in 2021 with dollar volume.”

Dr. John Leer, Morning Consult chief economist

How consumers are affected by the economy, inflation and other factors – or how they feel about what’s going on in the world around them – influences consumer confidence and factors into their buying decisions or saving habits, according to Dr. John Leer, chief economist for Morning Consult.

“In 2023, consumer confidence is starting to rise across most of the U.S. but remains far off from where it was a year ago,” he said. “It’s going to take a prolonged period of real wage growth and fairly stable policy outcomes for consumers to feel more comfortable and confident about the economy and their future. In December, consumers reported rising credit balances at the highest rates since tracking began. Research shows more consumers are finding it difficult to make ends meet at the end of the month, and the share of adults able to save each month continues to shrink.”

Leer pointed out this is a sign that consumers have been pushed to the brink and are having to pull back on spending as higher expenses erode their savings and sense of financial stability.

“While we’re seeing in the news that inflation is starting to cool, inflation is still impacting consumers,” he said. “They still feel and see that inflation is costing them more. Consumers are under financial stress and they’re trying to downsize their spending. Over the last two months, what we’re seeing is the outlook for the U.S. economy has really deteriorated, particularly among consumer fronts. Consumers have exhausted their sources of spending. We expect to see consumers continue to draw back from spending as small business and other sectors reduce hiring, expenditures and otherwise also contract.”

However, Leer also noted that housing and homeownership remain a top priority for many consumers. “Housing prices are beginning to flatten but continue to resist declines as buyer interest perks up,” he said. “Buyers are still waiting in the wings, interested in purchasing a home as soon as they’re able to do so financially. We continue to see that homeownership remains a strong goal for consumers, particularly for young adults looking to start a family and who feel secure in their jobs and ready for that next transition.”

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

By and photo credit: www.floridarealtors.org

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